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Greeley Rising: Roaring 20's for Greeley

Northern Colorado, which we are defining for this article as Larimer and Weld Counties, has seen tremendous population growth over the past few decades.  According to the 2020 U.S. Census, from 2010 to 2020 Weld County grew by over 30% to bring its total population to 328,981 and over the same time period Larimer county grew by over 20% to a population of 359,066 in 2020.  This trend is expected to continue, with the Colorado State Demographer’s office predicting that the Northern Colorado population will more than double over the next 30 years and that over the next decade Weld County will eclipse Larimer County in population.  This growth bodes well for real estate development and I predict that within this Northern Colorado region that Greeley is the municipality that will benefit the most over the next decade, Greeley’s roaring 20’s.

To clarify, I’m talking about the Greeley municipality, not the Greeley Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).  When national economists, demographers, and press talk about “Greeley” they are often referring to the MSA, but the Greeley MSA encompasses the entirety of Weld County, which spans 3,987 miles and is the third largest county in land mass nationally.  So to get a proper prospective on specifically where the growth and development opportunities are we need to zoom in.  Over the last 10 years the bulk of the growth has not been in Greeley proper, but rather south Weld and smaller municipalities between Greeley and Fort Collins.  South Weld County which encompasses the Frederick, Firestone, Erie, Dacono, and Fort Lupton communities has grown tremendously and the towns have become bedroom communities for Denver and Boulder metro.  In central Weld, Windsor and Severance have seen the vast majority of growth, as both have grown exponentially over the last 10 years and continue to develop.  

Over the next decade Greeley will see the explosive growth that other Weld municipalities achieved last decade for a few reasons.  

  • Job growth in northern Colorado is expected to continue to be robust which is the driver of the population growth, so people will continue to move into the region and Greeley will get an outsized proportion of that growth
  • We have a regional economy.  People don’t necessarily live in the municipality that they work in, a dominant commuting pattern in northern Colorado is east/west with US Highway 34 being the major east/west corridor.  Additionally, remote work has grown exponentially which allows people more flexibility geographically with where they live.
  • The Greeley municipal government is pro-growth, pro-development, and importantly for development, pro metro district, and is becoming more pro-growth.  While other northern Colorado municipalities are becoming more anti-growth, Greeley welcomes the growth.  Most developers and contractors will agree that Greeley is the easiest municipality in northern Colorado to work with by far.  
  • Greeley is water rich and it is comparatively very affordable.  As of 10/07/2021 a developer can purchase water for a project cash in lieu from the City of Greeley for $36,500/acre foot.  Water for Greeley could possibly be purchased for less from the Terry Ranch project.  By comparison, in other Weld communities other sources of water have to be procured.  C-BT (Colorado-Big Thompson) shares have traded in the $60k to $70k per unit range, and the yield per unit is roughly 0.75 units per acre foot.  So purchasing C-BT a developer could pay around $87,000 per acre foot of raw water, which is around 2.4 times more expensive than Greeley water.  This may be Greeley’s greatest advantage.

Development Momentum is building and the Pipeline for new projects is robust.  The growth is happening throughout all of Greeley, not just greenfield development in west Greeley.  Below is a sampling of some current projects and projects that are in the pipeline.

Greeley Downtown Core:

Real Estate Developer, Richmark, has been a great catalyst for downtown development.  The “Maddie” project redevelopment of the downtown 8th Avenue (originally Madison Avenue) corridor has been truly visionary.  When Richmark first started assembling blocks downtown in 2014 there were many doubters, they have been wrong.  The “Maddie” now has 221 apartment units complete and 100% occupied, with extensive wait lists. 55 Resort Greeley is 85 age restricted units and currently under construction with anticipated delivery next year.  Richmark is in the planning phase for a 190-to-200-unit apartment project at 10th St. and 8th Ave which is a JV between Richmark and Indianapolis based developer Milhaus.  Additionally, Richmark has multiple other assemblages of property downtown and has plans for the “Maddie” corridor to have around 1,000 apartment units.  Retail has taken notice, and the smart Retailers have made or are in the process of making their moves.  Natural Grocer’s has leased 1320 8th Avenue and is actually relocating from West Greeley to downtown.  Dutch Bros coffee is under construction and Berry Blendz has opened a second Greeley location downtown.  Austin’s Grill of Fort Collins fame is also opening a location at the 55 Resort Greeley building’s street level retail space. Retail demand downtown is evident, so now Richmark is redeveloping 1130 8th Ave into a multi-unit retail building with end cap drive through.  

West Greeley:

Greeley is pro-growth and this is most evidenced by the pipeline of projects in West Greeley.  Bizwest had a few great articles outlining the Metro-Districts that have been approved or are moving through the approval process in Greeley.  These projects will start to be built over the next few years and the result will be very similar to the Windsor/Timnath/Severance growth we saw over the last decade.  Greeley also has a pipeline of new multi-family development that should deliver a few thousand units over the next few years. Not an exhaustive list of projects in the pipeline but it does illustrate the growth.

  • Tri-Pointe Promontory: Residential is currently being built out.  There is an approx. additional 140 acres slated for commercial, multifamily, Flex Industrial.
  • City Center West: Mixed use commercial, residential, multifamily under construction and/or complete.  
  • Northridge Estates: Master planned community being built by DR Horton
  • Triple Creek: Approx. 70 acres residential development by Richmark
  • Westgate: Approx. 84 acres, mixed use commercial, multifamily, residential
  • Cache: Approx. 788 acres and potentially up to 1,046 acres, mixed use residential, multi-family, commercial
  • Lake Bluff: Approx. 274 acres, mixed use residential, multi-family, commercial. Developed by Westside Investment Partners
  • Poudre Heights: Approx. 292 acres, mixed use residential, multi-family, commercial, and industrial. Developed by Poudre Bay
  • Delantero: Approx. 817 acres, mixed use residential, multi-family, commercial, and industrial.

Northern Colorado will continue to grow over the next decade and the engine of that growth will be Greeley.  Stakeholders are making their moves to capitalize on the upcoming roaring 20’s in Greeley.

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